Top Stories; India's central bank warns of Iran war-fueled inflation, growth risks as it keeps policy rates steady
Top Stories — Wednesday, April 8, 2026
What is trending in the USA today? Here is Breaking News:
- India's central bank warns of Iran war-fueled inflation, growth risks as it keeps policy rates steady — CNBC
- U.S.-Iran ceasefire relief rally lifts global assets as oil plunges below $100 — CNBC
- CNBC Daily Open: Trump's truce sparks global relief rally — CNBC
India's central bank warns of Iran war-fueled inflation, growth risks as it keeps policy rates steady
Source: CNBC • Published: 4/8/2026, 12:04:43 PM
India's central bank on Wednesday held benchmark interest rates at 5.25%, warning that the Iran war had raised inflation worries while also flagging risks to economic growth.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the policy rate to remain unchanged.
The intensity and the duration of the conflict, along with the resulting damage to the energy and other infrastructure, pose a "risk to the [India's] inflation and growth," Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said in his statement.
The RBI lowered India's real GDP growth for April-June quarter to 6.8% from 6.9% and for July-September quarter to 6.7% from 7.0% forecast earlier.
"Elevated energy and other commodity prices coupled with supply shock due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz" would weigh on domestic production in the financial year ending March 2027, Malhotra said.
India's consumer inflation rose for a fourth straight month to 3.21% in February, up from 2.75% in the prior month. Malhotra said that the country's food price outlook remained "comfortable in the near term," while adding that the jump in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict risk to inflation.
While the country has seen sharp growth and continues to be the world's fastest growing large economy, expanding at a higher-than-expected 7.8% in the quarter ended December, Iran war worries loom large on the economy.
India's Chief Economic Advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran last month had also warned that growth forecast of 7.0%–7.4% for the financial year ending March 2027 faces "considerable downside" risk due to rising energy costs and supply‑chain disruptions linked to the war.
Nageswaran said the Middle East conflict would disrupt supplies of key commodities such as oil, gas, and fertilizers, push up import prices, and raise logistics costs, which would have an impact on both growth and inflation.
The conflict, which began on Feb. 28 following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, has disrupted movement of goods through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical waterway carrying 20% of global oil — driving up energy and freight costs and straining supply chains.
In a temporary relief, U.S. and Iran agreed to a ceasefire earlier in the day, with Tehran saying that safe passage of ships was "possible" for the next two weeks in coordination with the country's armed forces.
Signaling growth worries, HSBC flash Purchasing Managers' Index compiled by S&P Global showed that India's private sector activity in March slowed to its lowest level since October 2022. Companies surveyed indicated that the Middle East war, unstable market conditions, and inflationary pressures had "dampened growth."
Even if oil prices stay elevated, inflation is unlikely to cross above 6%, but "downside risks to growth" are more significant, said Anubhuti Sahay, head of India economics research at Standard Chartered Bank, adding that a rate increase seems unlikely.
However, she said that in a scenario where other central banks raise key policy rates, and there is "tremendous pressure on the rupee," then the RBI could "use policy rates as a tool to manage external sector risk."
U.S.-Iran ceasefire relief rally lifts global assets as oil plunges below $100
Source: CNBC • Published: 4/8/2026, 11:48:43 AM
A 2-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran triggered a relief rally across risk assets, sending stocks higher and oil tumbling, while persistent demand for gold and Treasurys pointed to a market still hedging against uncertainty.
U.S. President Donald Trump said he had agreed to suspend planned attacks on Iranian infrastructure for two weeks, subject to Iran agreeing to a "COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz."
Stocks surged across regions, with Asian benchmarks and U.S. futures climbing, as investors seized on the announcement as a potential turning point in a conflict that has rattled markets for weeks.
South Korea's Kospi surged over 5%, while the small-cap Kosdaq was up 3.4%. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 4%, while the Topix was 3.2% higher. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 advanced 2.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up more than 2%, while mainland China's CSI 300 rose 2.15%.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 967 points, or 2.1%. S&P 500 futures added 2.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 2.3%.
Bitcoin jumped over 2% to $71,508.
Safe havens, which would typically sell-off in a de-escalation, also found support. Spot gold rose 2.2% to $4,803.83 per ounce, while gold futures added over 3% to $4,835.90.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in a post on X said that Tehran will stop its "defensive operations," adding that safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz was "possible" for the next two weeks in coordination with the country's armed forces.
Investors also flocked to U.S. Treasurys, with yields on 10-year and 20-year debt down 9 basis points to 4.253% and 4.839%, respectively. Yields on 30-year Treasurys fell 7 basis points to 4.851%.
"We're effectively seeing a relief rally layered on top of a still fragile macro backdrop," said Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs.
"Equities are responding to de-escalation headlines, but investors are not fully removing hedges given how uncertain the underlying situation remains," he told CNBC via email.
Leung said the current move reflects more of a positioning reset than a decisive shift back to a sustained risk-on environment.
"Relief and hedging can coexist," Leung said. "Investors are adding risk tactically but still holding or even adding to defensives as protection against reversal or other sudden headlines."
That dynamic helps explain why bonds and gold are continuing to attract inflows even as equities rally.
Underlying macro concerns also remain unresolved. While falling oil prices may ease immediate inflation fears, the broader impact of energy spikes during the war is still filtering through the global economy. "Growth concerns are building alongside the inflation shock," Leung added.
Oil prices, meanwhile, plunged below $100 per barrel. The West Texas Intermediate contract fell more than 14% to $96.98 per barrel, while the international benchmark Brent lost more than 12% to around $96 per barrel.
That said, some market watchers still remain skeptical about whether the ceasefire would hold.
"TACO is becoming less of a joke and more of a trading strategy across markets. Investors have seen enough last-minute pivots to know that a two-week deadline isn't necessarily what it seems," said Zavier Wong, market analyst from eToro.
CNBC Daily Open: Trump's truce sparks global relief rally
Source: CNBC • Published: 4/8/2026, 11:44:50 AM
Hello, this is Leonie Kidd writing to you from London. Welcome to another edition of CNBC's Daily Open.
It's the most significant development since the onset of the war in Iran, and markets are reacting. The news that a truce has finally been reached between the U.S. and Iran, with Israel's support, has triggered a wave of relief across equity markets.
Some wildcard factors remain, but for now the ceasefire is being met with optimism.
"I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks." The words of U.S. President Donald Trump in a post on Truth Social marked the announcement of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. "We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate."
The news has sparked a global relief rally, with Dow futures gaining more than 1,000 points in early trade, a surge in stocks across Asia, and big gains expected in Europe.
Oil prices are plunging, with Brent and WTI sinking below $100 a barrel.
A statement from Iran's Minister of Foreign Affairs, on behalf of the Supreme National Security Council, said Tehran would stop its defensive operations if attacks against it cease, and that it would allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz subject to coordination with its armed forces and with "due consideration of technical limitations."
But just hours into the ceasefire taking effect, many Middle Eastern countries reported incoming missiles and drones from Iran on Wednesday, triggering air defenses across the Gulf.
The Israeli military said it had identified ballistic missile attacks from Iran early Wednesday, with early warnings issued in central and northern parts of the country.
The United Arab Emirates said its air defense systems were intercepting missiles and drones and urged the public to remain in safe places.
Saudi Arabia's Civil Defense organization issued early warnings of "potential danger" across the country, including Riyadh. Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar also issued alerts or activated defenses as threats emerged across the region.
Crucially, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the two-week truce will not apply to Lebanon. Speaking to CNBC, Lebanon's Economy Minister told Access Middle East that the ceasefire is "very good news" for the region, but said he hoped his country would be part of it after being "forced into this war."
Anthropic on Tuesday announced an advanced artificial intelligence model that will roll out to a select group of companies as part of a new cybersecurity initiative called Project Glasswing.
The model, Claude Mythos, excels at identifying weaknesses and security flaws within software, and Anthropic is limiting access to try to prevent bad actors from exploiting that capability, the company said.
For complete details, visit the original sources linked above.
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