Top Stories — Monday, April 13, 2026
What is trending in the USA today? Here is Breaking News:
- Here’s the latest. — nyt News
- How Would a Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Work? Here Are Some Possibilities. — nyt News
- From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge? — CNBC
Here’s the latest.
Source: nyt News • Published: 4/13/2026, 11:41:54 AM
Beirut9:38 a.m. April 13
Islamabad11:38 a.m. April 13
Oil prices surged and stocks fell early Monday, hours before the U.S. military was expected to begin a blockade of Iranian parts of the Strait of Hormuz.
Mr. Trump announced the blockade on Sunday, adding to uncertainty around an already fragile truce between Iran and the United States. Marathon peace talks between top Iranian and American leaders in Pakistan over the weekend ended without a breakthrough.
The U.S. military said that it would begin blocking ships “entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas” starting at 10 a.m. Eastern on Monday, while allowing other vessels to transit the strait on their way to or from non-Iranian ports.
Iran has already choked off shipping through the waterway — through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil normally flows — since the war began in late February, allowing only its own ships and a few others to pass. Uncertainty over when the war might end has been rattling investors seeking signs that oil and natural gas flows from the Persian Gulf will stabilize.
As markets opened Sunday evening, the price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose more than 7 percent to around $102 a barrel. Brent crude, which had climbed as high as $119 a barrel in late March, fell to $95 a barrel after Mr. Trump announced the cease-fire last week. Global oil prices have soared more than 50 percent during the conflict.
A U.S. blockade of Iranian ports would be a significant change in Washington’s approach so far. Last month, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that the United States was allowing Iranian oil tankers to traverse the strait to keep up global supplies.
It remained unclear how a U.S. blockade would affect the cease-fire or the peace talks.
On Sunday, an adviser to Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader, warned that Iran had “large, untouched levers” to counter any naval blockade. Its top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament, directly addressed American consumers: “Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”
But other Iranian officials appeared to leave the door open for further diplomacy, even as they emphasized a lack of trust in American negotiators.
On Sunday night, Mr. Trump told reporters that the cease-fire was “holding well” and that Iran may yet return to the negotiating table. But he claimed not to be bothered either way.
“I don’t care if they come back or not,” he said. “If they don’t come back, I’m fine.”
Here’s what else we’re covering:
Negotiations in Islamabad: Talks ended with the U.S. delegation, led by Vice President JD Vance, saying that Iran’s refusal to give up its nuclear program was a sticking point, while Tehran accused Washington of a “maximalism approach.” The key differences between the two sides center on the fate of nearly 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, frozen Iranian revenues held abroad, and control of the strait.
Israel and Lebanon: Israel was not involved in the weekend negotiations, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoided mentioning them in an address on Saturday evening as he faces criticism at home over the cease-fire. Iran has accused Israel of breaking the cease-fire by continuing to attack in Lebanon. The Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to the United States are expected to meet in Washington this week for rare direct talks.
Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,701 civilians, including 254 children, had been killed in Iran as of Wednesday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Saturday said that 2,020 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, including 357 in a wave of Israeli strikes on Wednesday. In attacks attributed to Iran, at least 32 people have been killed in Gulf nations. At least 22 people had been killed in Israel as of Sunday, as well as 12 Israeli soldiers fighting in Lebanon. The American death toll stands at 13 service members.
President Trump said the cease-fire with Iran was “holding well” and that the blockade he announced earlier on Sunday would go into effect on Monday morning. U.S. Central Command said earlier that it will block all vessels headed in and out of Iranian ports beginning at 10 a.m. Eastern time.
Speaking to reporters, Trump said Iran may yet return to the negotiating table. “I think Iran is in very bad shape,” he said. “I think they’re pretty desperate.” But he claimed not to be bothered either way. “I don’t care if they come back or not,” he said. If they don’t come back, I’m fine.”
President Trump on Sunday night lashed out at Pope Leo XIV, the first American pontiff, on social media and in a brief exchange with reporters after landing in Washington after a visit to Florida. “I don’t want a Pope who thinks it’s OK for Iran to have a Nuclear Weapon,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, apparently responding to the religious leader’s rebukes of his policies and rhetoric amid the war with Iran.
The pope on Tuesday condemned the president’s threat to wipe out a “whole civilization” if Iran did not open the Strait of Hormuz ahead of a deadline he had imposed, and he has previously resisted Trump administration officials’ framing of the war in Christian terms. Trump declined to respond to questions from reporters about what prompted his critique of the religious leader.
After weekend peace talks in Pakistan between the United States and Iran ended with no agreement, President Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would impose a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping waterway that Iran has mostly choked off since the war began in late February.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Mr. Trump said in a post on social media. “At some point, we will reach an ‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT’ basis.”
The statement came as traffic in the strait, through which a major portion of the world’s seaborne oil and natural gas passes, has ground to a practical halt for more than a month amid Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the region.
While Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the waterway — possibly for a fee — it has used control over the strait, including threats that it has been mined, to disrupt the global economy and to pressure the Trump administration.
The United States Central Command, known as CENTCOM, said on Sunday that a blockade would be enforced “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.”
Here’s what to know about the U.S. plan for a blockade.
American forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to and from non-Iranian ports, CENTCOM said. The blockade will begin Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, it said.
Parties at war can exercise the right of “visit and search,” meaning that they can stop and inspect even private vessels in waters that are not neutral and decide whether or not they may pass, said James Kraska, a professor of international maritime law at the U.S. Naval War College and a visiting professor at Harvard Law School.
A U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would mean that any ship that attempts to transit the waterway would have to submit to a search if asked to do so and U.S. forces would be able to determine whether or not to allow it to proceed, he said.
Such a blockade could inflict economic damage on Iran that would undermine its ability to keep fighting over the long term by denying it the ability to export oil and earn revenue. But it could also leave countries that rely on Iranian oil, like China, in a bind, Mr. Kraska said.
But there still may be mines in the strait and Iran maintains the ability to fire missiles and drones, Mr. Kraska noted.
A U.S. blockade on Iranian ports would quite likely mean that Iranian vessels, which have been able to transit the Strait of Hormuz amid the war, would no longer be able to do so and that other ships that have been stuck at port or at sea could begin to move supplies in and out through this route.
This would be a reversal of the U.S. approach so far. Even as the United States has been attacking Iran, American officials have taken steps that enabled Iranian oil to flow to limit pressure on energy prices around the world.
Last month, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that the United States was allowing Iranian oil tankers to traverse the strait to keep up global supplies. The United States also temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea, allowing it to be sold to most countries, including the United States, for a month.
Some economic analysts have called on the United States to block the flow of Iranian oil as a means to end its effective control of the strait.
Robin J. Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has argued that Iran’s dependence on oil exports means it will not be able to afford to keep attacking ships once its own economy takes a hit. On Sunday, he said in a post on social media that a blockade “collapses Iran’s business model.”
But Iranian officials, who have been keenly aware of the pressure on Mr. Trump as a result of spikes in energy prices, appear unconcerned. In a post on social media on Sunday, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and the country’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote: “Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”
Normally about 150 vessels transit through the Strait of Hormuz daily. In March, a little more than 150 passed through the waterway all month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Those that did transit had made arrangements with the Iranian authorities and may have paid a toll or fee for passage, shipping intelligence firms have reported.
The halt in traffic has led to a spike in oil prices. If an American blockade on ships to and from Iran leads to freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the waterway with oil from Persian Gulf countries, it could mean lower prices, though how quickly that could happen is not clear.
Mr. Trump said on Sunday that “any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”
But much remains unclear. Whether vessel operators will run the risk of transiting the strait at this point could depend on how Iran responds to the blockade. And whether the United States will be able to control vessel passage is also an open question.
After CENTCOM announced that it would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, vessel trackers expressed doubts about enforcement, pointing to tricks ships have used, like changing their identification data, to evade notice.
“This will get tricky as a number of Iran-linked tankers make bogus port calls in Saudi Arabia and Iraq with the help of AIS spoofing,” the company Tanker Trackers posted, referring to Automatic Identification Systems. “Good luck with that, CENTCOM.”
A retired Navy admiral, James Stavridis, welcomed the blockade announcement a post on social media on Sunday. “In recent days,” he wrote, “the ONLY people benefiting from Gulf transit were the Iranians,” He said that the United States and its allies “are no worse off than we were after the Iranians started holding the Strait hostage.”
Tanker Trackers, a shipping intelligence company, said on Sunday that a supertanker belonging to the National Iranian Tanker Company had reached India with two million barrels of Iranian crude oil for the first time in seven years, after the United States issued a temporary waiver on sanctions on some Iranian oil sales last month. The arrival of Iranian oil in India came as the U.S. Central Command said it was preparing to impose a blockade on vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports starting on Monday morning.
Oil prices rose and stocks fell on Monday after peace talks between the United States and Iran ended without a deal. Hours later, President Trump announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz.
It is not yet clear what that escalation will mean for the fragile cease-fire the countries agreed to last week, leaving no clear path to ending a war that is now entering its seventh week. That uncertainty continues to rattle investors eager for a path to stabilize the flow of oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf.
In attempting a blockade, Mr. Trump is repeating a playbook he used recently against Venezuela to cut that country off from a vital source of revenue. This time, he does not want Iran to be able to use the strait, a vital waterway, for exports. U.S. Central Command clarified on Sunday that U.S. forces would interfere only with vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports.
“We’re not going to let Iran make money by selling oil to people that they like,” Mr. Trump told Fox News.
Oil prices surged above $100 once more as markets opened on Sunday evening.
The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose more than 7 percent to around $102 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, climbed more than 8 percent to about $105 a barrel.
Investors and analysts are focused on the continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that is a vital trading route for oil and natural gas. As much as one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and substantial amounts of natural gas typically pass through the strait. But few vessels have attempted that trip since the war started out of fear that Iran might attack.
Futures on the S&P 500, which give investors a chance to bet on the market before exchanges open on Monday morning, fell nearly 1 percent. The stock market had stabilized after a fragile cease-fire took hold last week, with the S&P 500 rising 3.6 percent for the week through Friday, its second consecutive week of gains.
Stocks in Asia, where countries import vast quantities of oil and gas, were trading lower. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s benchmark Kospi fell more than 1 percent, while stocks in Hong Kong also declined.
Gas prices were little changed on Sunday, at a national average of about $4.13 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. The rise in prices since the war began has raised the cost of regular gas for drivers by 38 percent.
Gas prices don’t move in lock step with crude, usually trailing increases or drops by a few days.
Diesel prices have increased more quickly in recent weeks and stood at $5.66 on Sunday, up some 50 percent since the start of the war.
U.S. forces will begin blockading maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports at 10 a.m. Eastern time Monday, U.S. Central Command announced on Sunday, in what appeared to be a step back from President Trump’s earlier vow to blockade the entire Strait of Hormuz. Trump had declared on social media that the U.S. would be blockading “any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.” But Central Command said in its statement that U.S. forces “will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”
Two top Iranian officials directly responded to President Trump’s threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz on social media on Sunday. Mohsen Rezaei, a former commander who is now a senior adviser to the supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said that Iran had “large, untouched levers” to counter any naval blockade and that the country would not be pressured “with tweets and imaginary plans.” Iran’s top negotiator and the speaker of its Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, separately warned American consumers: “Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”
Iranian officials on Sunday emphasized a lack of trust in American negotiators but appeared to leave the door open for further diplomacy after marathon peace talks in Pakistan ended without a deal.
Iran’s top negotiator and the speaker of its Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said in a statement on social media that while Iran had approached the negotiations in good faith, the U.S. team had failed to “gain the trust of the Iranian delegation.”
He pointed to the precedent that the United States had set: Over the past year, it has twice attacked Iran in the middle of negotiations. Still, he indicated that future talks were a possibility, saying that it was now time for Washington “to decide whether it can earn our trust or not.”
The remarks from Mr. Ghalibaf, his first since the talks ended, came after defiant statements from the leader of the U.S. delegation, Vice President JD Vance. Before departing Islamabad, Mr. Vance said that the United States had put out its “final and best offer,” and told reporters that Iran had “chosen not to accept our terms.”
Mr. Vance’s posturing did not go unnoticed. Mohammad Javad Zarif, who was the foreign minister of Iran when the country reached a nuclear deal with the United States in 2015, said on social media that Mr. Vance’s comments reflected the reason the latest round of talks had failed. “The U.S. must learn: you can’t dictate terms to Iran,” he said. But it was “not too late to learn,” he added. “Yet.”
The talks were the highest-level face-to-face meeting between American and Iranian leaders since 1979. The three main sticking points, according to two Iranian officials familiar with the talks, were the Strait of Hormuz, the fate of Iran’s highly enriched uranium, and reparations for the damage caused by six weeks of intense U.S.-Israeli strikes.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, said on social media that a deal could be reached if Washington “abandons its maximalist approach and respects the rights of the Iranian people.” He earlier told President Vladimir Putin of Russia in a phone call that the United States’ “maximalist approach” was the primary obstacle and that if the U.S. “adheres to international legal frameworks,” a deal would not be far off, according to the Iranian state broadcaster IRIB.
Ali Gholhaki, a conservative analyst close to Iranian officials, said that the United States had also refused to commit to stopping Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon, adding that it seemed “the Americans didn’t come to negotiate.” An Iranian state television report similarly said the United States’ “overreach and unreasonable demands” had stymied the talks.
Still, Iranian officials suggested that they were not closed off to future diplomacy. A spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry, Esmaeil Baqaei, told Iranian state media that Iran would “continue to work to bring the two views of Americans and Iranians closer together.”
The negotiations had taken place “in the aftermath of a 40-day war and in an ambience of mistrust and skepticism,” Mr. Baqaei said. “Naturally, we should have never expected to reach a deal in one session.”
Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, said on social media that the talks were “not an event, but a process.” They had “laid the foundation for a diplomatic process that, if trust and will are strengthened, can create a sustainable framework for the interests of all parties,” he wrote.
President Trump said in an interview on Sunday with Maria Bartiromo of Fox News that the Iranians “haven’t left” the bargaining table. He credited his staggering threat to wipe out Iran’s civilization with bringing them to the table in the first place, and he said he felt that the United States would be getting “everything” it wanted from Iran.
Reporting was contributed by Isabel Kershner, Sanam Mahoozi, Farnaz Fassihi and Katie Rogers.
Read the full story at nyt News.
How Would a Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Work? Here Are Some Possibilities.
Source: nyt News • Published: 4/13/2026, 10:57:59 AM
After weekend peace talks in Pakistan between the United States and Iran ended with no agreement, President Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would impose a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping waterway that Iran has mostly choked off since the war began in late February.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” Mr. Trump said in a post on social media. “At some point, we will reach an ‘ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT’ basis.”
The statement came as traffic in the strait, through which a major portion of the world’s seaborne oil and natural gas passes, has ground to a practical halt for more than a month amid Iranian strikes on commercial vessels in the region.
While Iran has allowed some ships to pass through the waterway — possibly for a fee — it has used control over the strait, including threats that it has been mined, to disrupt the global economy and to pressure the Trump administration.
The United States Central Command, known as CENTCOM, said on Sunday that a blockade would be enforced “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.”
Here’s what to know about the U.S. plan for a blockade.
American forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the strait to and from non-Iranian ports, CENTCOM said. The blockade will begin Monday at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, it said.
Parties at war can exercise the right of “visit and search,” meaning that they can stop and inspect even private vessels in waters that are not neutral and decide whether or not they may pass, said James Kraska, a professor of international maritime law at the U.S. Naval War College and a visiting professor at Harvard Law School.
A U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would mean that any ship that attempts to transit the waterway would have to submit to a search if asked to do so and U.S. forces would be able to determine whether or not to allow it to proceed, he said.
Such a blockade could inflict economic damage on Iran that would undermine its ability to keep fighting over the long term by denying it the ability to export oil and earn revenue. But it could also leave countries that rely on Iranian oil, like China, in a bind, Mr. Kraska said.
But there still may be mines in the strait and Iran maintains the ability to fire missiles and drones, Mr. Kraska noted.
A U.S. blockade on Iranian ports would quite likely mean that Iranian vessels, which have been able to transit the Strait of Hormuz amid the war, would no longer be able to do so and that other ships that have been stuck at port or at sea could begin to move supplies in and out through this route.
This would be a reversal of the U.S. approach so far. Even as the United States has been attacking Iran, American officials have taken steps that enabled Iranian oil to flow to limit pressure on energy prices around the world.
Last month, Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said that the United States was allowing Iranian oil tankers to traverse the strait to keep up global supplies. The United States also temporarily lifted sanctions on Iranian oil at sea, allowing it to be sold to most countries, including the United States, for a month.
Some economic analysts have called on the United States to block the flow of Iranian oil as a means to end its effective control of the strait.
Robin J. Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has argued that Iran’s dependence on oil exports means it will not be able to afford to keep attacking ships once its own economy takes a hit. On Sunday, he said in a post on social media that a blockade “collapses Iran’s business model.”
But Iranian officials, who have been keenly aware of the pressure on Mr. Trump as a result of spikes in energy prices, appear unconcerned. In a post on social media on Sunday, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and the country’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, wrote: “Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”
Normally about 150 vessels transit through the Strait of Hormuz daily. In March, a little more than 150 passed through the waterway all month, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Those that did transit had made arrangements with the Iranian authorities and may have paid a toll or fee for passage, shipping intelligence firms have reported.
The halt in traffic has led to a spike in oil prices. If an American blockade on ships to and from Iran leads to freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the waterway with oil from Persian Gulf countries, it could mean lower prices, though how quickly that could happen is not clear.
Mr. Trump said on Sunday that “any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!”
But much remains unclear. Whether vessel operators will run the risk of transiting the strait at this point could depend on how Iran responds to the blockade. And whether the United States will be able to control vessel passage is also an open question.
After CENTCOM announced that it would not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports, vessel trackers expressed doubts about enforcement, pointing to tricks ships have used, like changing their identification data, to evade notice.
“This will get tricky as a number of Iran-linked tankers make bogus port calls in Saudi Arabia and Iraq with the help of AIS spoofing,” the company Tanker Trackers posted, referring to Automatic Identification Systems. “Good luck with that, CENTCOM.”
A retired Navy admiral, James Stavridis, welcomed the blockade announcement a post on social media on Sunday. “In recent days,” he wrote, “the ONLY people benefiting from Gulf transit were the Iranians,” He said that the United States and its allies “are no worse off than we were after the Iranians started holding the Strait hostage.”
Ephrat Livni is a Times reporter covering breaking news around the world. She is based in Washington.
Read the full story at nyt News.
From panic to pricing in: Are markets past 'peak fear and sell-off' despite oil price surge?
Source: CNBC • Published: 4/13/2026, 10:55:02 AM
The U.S. move to blockade the critical Strait of Hormuz has led to a familiar market response: surging crude prices, rising bond yields and a firmer dollar.
But this time, the reaction has been notably restrained, barring oil movements. Equities fell relatively modestly Monday, suggesting investors have priced in much of the geopolitical risks and are growing less reactive to headlines.
"There's a belief that a lot of this is negotiation tactics," said Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X ETFs, referring to Trump's announcement. "Markets have reached peak uncertainty. The reaction function is no longer as extreme as before."
Asia stock markets were trading broadly lower, but the magnitude of moves was notably muted, with most major benchmarks down around 1%. Futures for key U.S. indexes were also down under 1%.
Spot gold prices lost about 0.5% to $4,720.28 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index added 0.38%. A stronger dollar makes greenback-priced gold expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing bullion's appeal.
Leung said recent market moves suggest investors are becoming more accustomed to geopolitical shocks, with volatility easing compared to earlier weeks. "So I think the market now has a better price and better understanding of the Trump motive," he said.
Similarly, Ten Cap's lead portfolio manager, Jun Bei Liu, said that volatility indicators suggest the worst of the panic may have passed. "We saw the VIX pick up a few weeks ago, and that's probably the peak fear and sell off… from here on, it's really the market trying to work [itself] out."
A key near-term risk, however, lies in the political timeline surrounding the U.S. military action. Leung pointed to the war powers resolution, which effectively gives the administration a limited window to secure congressional approval. "In the next few weeks, we are going to see a rising desperation from Trump's administration," he said, adding that markets may not yet fully appreciate this constraint.
U.S. lawmakers are reportedly again looking to pass a resolution to stop the Iran war and force Trump to seek Congress' approval before any more attacks.
The U.S. move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which has already seen traffic drop to a trickle since the war started, has reinforced expectations of tighter energy supplies, pushing crude prices higher and lifting inflation concerns globally.
Inflation concerns have also clouded rate-cut expectations, driving bond yields higher while the U.S. dollar has strengthened and equities have declined. Yields on the 10-year Treasury added more than 333 basis points since the war started. The dollar index has gained about 1.4% over the same period.
U.S. oil prices have surged over 55% since the war started. U.S. crude oil futures for May delivery jumped more than 8% to $104.93 per barrel by 10.50 p.m. ET. International benchmark Brent for June delivery advanced 7% to $102.17.
Analysts expect oil prices to eventually retreat as the geopolitical situation stabilizes, even if near-term volatility persists.
"I'm pretty confident that oil is going to go down from here … we're going to see oil at $80 a barrel again," said Michael Yoshikami of Destination Wealth Management, citing expectations that the U.S. and Iran will eventually reach a negotiated resolution, which could quickly unwind the current risk premium.
Standard Chartered's Steve Brice said that higher oil prices push back any prospects for easier monetary policies, putting upward pressure on bond yields and the U.S. dollar. "However, we see these as temporary phenomena as we believe the U.S. is looking for ways to de-escalate."
Gold has behaved less predictably, falling despite heightened geopolitical tensions. Brice attributed that to emerging-market central banks selling bullion to stabilize currencies, though he expects demand to return if Mideast tensions ease.
For now, markets appear to be balancing elevated geopolitical risk with expectations that hostilities will eventually ease, taking Trump's statements in their stride.
"We believe stock market positioning favors a rally and, therefore, as long as things do not get materially worse, then stocks should continue to rally near term," Brice said. Investors are still positioned defensively even as the macro backdrop remains relatively constructive, leaving room for equities to rebound if the conflict begins to de-escalate, he added.
That offers investors a delicate environment, one where geopolitical shocks still matter, but no longer trigger the same level of panic-selling seen earlier during the conflict.
"It's not such a binary outcome. It's going to be a bit of a gray area for a while," Yoshikami said.
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